2026 Tournament of Champions Preview......What does the Data Predict
- SWMO Basketball
- Jan 11
- 5 min read
We are about 98 hours away from the tipoff of the 41st annual Bass Pro Tournament of Champions and we at SWMO Sports are ready for this year's tournament. Many things have changed since the inception of the tournament and while some have been good, some has been bad and some have been…..well indifferent. This year as we are leading up to the tournament we wanted to know what the Data says about perhaps the most up in the air tournament in recent history. So in true 2026 fashion, we plugged in all of the information and asked AI what we can expect. If Chat GPT is accurate, we are in for a treat. Here is what the data is projecting we get this week!
ROUND 1 — THURSDAY
Game 1
Prediction: Wheeler 64, Bartlett 58
Key Performers
Colben Landrew (Wheeler): 18 pts, 8 reb, 4 ast
Kevin Savage (Wheeler): 14 pts, 5 ast
Dylan Jones (Bartlett): 17 pts, 6 reb
D.J. Okoth (Bartlett): 11 pts, 5 reb
Breakdown: This is a grinder. Bartlett’s youth competes, but Wheeler’s experience shows late. Landrew scores the final six points as Wheeler executes while Bartlett learns.
Game 2
#1 Paul VI vs. Logan-Rogersville
Prediction: Paul VI 78, Logan-Rogersville 61
Key Performers
Jordan Smith Jr. (PVI): 26 pts, 7 ast, 4 reb
Lawrence “Turk” Brown (PVI): 12 pts, 6 ast, 2 stl
Chase Branham (LR): 19 pts, 5 reb, 3 ast
Breakdown: The crowd is electric early, and Logan-Rogersville feeds off it. Chase Branham hits a couple tough jumpers to keep things interesting, but once Jordan Smith Jr. finds rhythm, the gap shows. Paul VI’s discipline and half-court defense slowly drain the upset energy.
Game 3
Prediction: Calvary Christian 82, St. John Bosco 75
Key Performers
Cayden Daughtry (Calvary): 24 pts, 6 ast, 3 stl
Collin Paul (Calvary): 17 pts, 9 reb, 4 ast
Christian Collins (Bosco): 21 pts, 11 reb
Breakdown: Bosco’s size causes problems early, but Calvary’s pace flips the game in a three-minute burst. Daughtry changes the feel of the building with back-to-back steals and transition buckets.
Game 4
#9 Principia vs. Kickapoo
Prediction: Principia 69, Kickapoo 60
Key Performers
Quentin Coleman (Principia): 22 pts, 6 reb, 3 ast
Sekou Cisse (Principia): 10 pts, 9 reb, 3 blk
Reese Kimrey (Kickapoo): 16 pts, 5 ast
Breakdown: Kickapoo competes, but Principia’s size controls the paint. Cisse alters everything at the rim, and Coleman answers every run.
SEMIFINALS — FRIDAY
Semifinal 1
Paul VI vs. Wheeler
Prediction: Paul VI 70, Wheeler 63
Key Performers
Jordan Smith Jr. (PVI): 23 pts, 6 ast
Colben Landrew (Wheeler): 16 pts, 7 reb
Kevin Savage (Wheeler): 13 pts
Breakdown: Elite game. Wheeler’s defense travels, but Smith delivers late — a pull-up three and two assists in the final three minutes seal it.
Semifinal 2
Calvary Christian vs. Principia
Prediction: Calvary Christian 76, Principia 72
Key Performers
Cayden Daughtry (Calvary): 21 pts, 5 stl
Collin Paul (Calvary): 15 pts, 8 reb
Quentin Coleman (Principia): 24 pts
Breakdown: This is the game of the tournament. Principia executes beautifully, but Calvary’s pressure creates just enough chaos late. A Daughtry steal with 40 seconds left flips it.
CONSOLATION SEMIFINALS
Bartlett vs. Logan-Rogersville
Prediction: Bartlett 68, Logan-Rogersville 64
Key Performers
Dylan Jones (Bartlett): 20 pts, 8 reb
Braylon Williams (Bartlett): 14 pts, 5 ast
Chase Branham (LR): 23 pts
St. John Bosco vs. Kickapoo
Prediction: St. John Bosco 74, Kickapoo 66
Key Performers
Christian Collins (Bosco): 28 pts, 12 reb
Reese Kimrey (Kickapoo): 18 pts, 6 ast
SATURDAY — PLACEMENT GAMES
7th Place Game
Kickapoo vs. Logan-Rogersville
Prediction: Logan-Rogersville 71, Kickapoo 69
Key Performers
Chase Branham: 26 pts, 6 reb
Titus Moore: 12 pts, 7 reb
Reese Kimrey: 17 pts
5th Place Game
Bartlett vs. St. John Bosco
Prediction: Bartlett 73, St. John Bosco 70
Key Performers
D.J. Okoth: 18 pts, 6 reb
Dylan Jones: 16 pts
Christian Collins: 22 pts, 10 reb
3rd Place Game
Wheeler vs. Principia
Prediction: Wheeler 67, Principia 60
Key Performers
Colben Landrew: 19 pts, 9 reb
Kevin Savage: 15 pts
Quentin Coleman: 18 pts
CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
Paul VI vs. Calvary Christian
Prediction: Paul VI 81, Calvary Christian 74
Key Performers
Jordan Smith Jr.: 35 pts, 12 ast, 5 reb
Lawrence “Turk” Brown: 14 pts, 6 ast
Cayden Daughtry: 22 pts, 4 stl
Collin Paul: 16 pts, 7 reb
Breakdown: Styles clash. Calvary’s pace lands punches, but Jordan Smith Jr. delivers a masterpiece. He controls tempo, answers runs, and closes like a superstar. Paul VI’s experience wins the final four minutes.
FINAL STANDINGS
🥇 Paul VI
🥈 Calvary Christian
🥉 Wheeler
4️⃣ Principia
5️⃣ Bartlett
6️⃣ St. John Bosco
7️⃣ Logan-Rogersville
8️⃣ Kickapoo
BOLD PREDICTIONS — 2026 TOURNAMENT OF CHAMPIONS
Jordan Smith Jr. puts together the best individual TOC performance since Ace Bailey. There will be at least one game where Jordan Smith Jr. looks completely unguardable. A 30+ point night in the semifinals or championship feels inevitable — and it won’t just be scoring. The assists, the control, and the poise will separate him from everyone else in the building.
Calvary Christian flips a game in under three minutes — and never looks back. At some point, Cayden Daughtry will string together a steal, a pull-up three, another steal, and a transition bucket. The run will be quick, loud, and decisive. One team will look up and realize the game is gone before the timeout horn finishes echoing.
A local crowd swings a real, tangible result. This won’t be subtle. A Missouri team will get a favorable bounce, force a rushed possession, or ride a wave of noise into a momentum-changing run. The crowd won’t just be loud — it’ll matter.
Christian Collins posts a monster stat line in a loss — and it raises his stock anyway. Even if St. John Bosco doesn’t reach the title game, Christian Collins will have a “how did he do that?” performance. Something like 28 points, 12 rebounds, and a handful of highlight plays that dominate conversations long after the final score.
Bartlett’s youth looks fearless — not overwhelmed. There will be a moment where people remember how young D.J. Okoth and Braylon Williams actually are… and then immediately forget again. Bartlett won’t shrink. They’ll compete possession-for-possession with a national power and look completely comfortable doing it.
Principia proves the City of Palms run was no fluke. Anyone still skeptical will stop being skeptical by Friday night. Quentin Coleman will deliver in a big moment, and Sekou Cisse will change the geometry of the floor against elite guards. Principia will look like they belong — because they do.
One game is decided entirely by rebounding. Not shooting. Not turnovers. Rebounding. One team wins a game by +10 or more on the glass, and it won’t be the one people expect.
The “best game of the tournament” won’t be the championship. The semifinal round delivers a classic. Lead changes. Late shots. Bodies on the floor. The kind of game people argue about for years when debating “best TOC games ever.”
A role player becomes a TOC legend. Not a five-star. Not the headline name. Someone comes off the bench or plays a glue role and hits two massive shots, takes a charge, or locks down a star late. Fans will remember the name — even if they didn’t know it walking in.
By Saturday night, one player leaves Springfield permanently elevated.
Recruiting buzz spikes. National attention follows. A player walks out of the arena with a completely different reputation than the one they walked in with. This tournament has always done that — and 2026 will be no different.
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